1. Understand the Line. The betting line is not created each week based on the skills of each team. The line is not an assessment of what the final score will be, rather the line is set at a number which the oddsmakers believe will draw even action on both sides of the game. In summary, the line is set not on skill but the balance of money.
2. Read the Line. The oddsmakers provide handicappers and insiders early access to the lines so they can measure the level of insider interest in a game before opening the lines. Those early moves are key indicators of professional opinions. Whereas late moves are generally just money moves and not indicative of 'smart' money but rather 'public' money. This is more true in professional betting than college betting.
3. The best point spread teams always fall year over year. In the NFL, those teams that perform the best as Favorites against the spread in one season always falter in the next. In 1999 it was the Rams who covered the spread most often and in 2000 they where crushed. In 2000, the Oakland Raiders wore that title and fell to the middle of the pack in 2001 as point spread performers. In 2001 it was the Chicago Bears that covered nearly every game in which they where the favorite and in 2002 they where abysmal. In 2002 the Carolina Panthers won the title as the best performing favorite, will they continue the trend in 2003?
4. Get more Value for your wagering. The world of the Internet has brought competition to the world of sports gaming. The customer is the winner when sportsbooks compete for business. When you have every sportsbook running the same number on the game and one book offering a full refund of your wager in the case of a NFL Shutout the choice is easy where you have to place your wager. Some books even offer reduced vig on games, such as Sportsbook.com who offers 5% vig on Fridays. Half price vig is the same value as moving the number half a point. The 10% vig is such a factor when betting 10 games a week that you have to take every opportunity to mitigate its effect.
5. Be very cautious of home dogs in the NFL, most especially during Monday Night Football. The numbers speak for themselves, Home Dogs dominated the 2002 season on Monday night.
6. The pointspread usually only affects between 10-15% of the NFL games. The spread is more often a factor in college football betting. So, if one can pick the winner of a game straight- up, the points won't usually matter one way or the other.
7. Watch those Coaches. The press will be sure to let you know when a head coach is on the way out the door and then the domino effect kicks in. The entire coaching staff starts lining up their next jobs and players start looking for transfers. The result, repeated numerous times in the past, is an almost unavoidable distraction and loss of focus in the ongoing campaigns, often resulting in a string of pointspread defeats.
8. Always an edge: Proposition & Future Wagering. These days there are over a hundred different ways to bet the games, from quarterback passing yards to the longest field goal. With all the different ways to bet each week, there are most certainly going to be inaccurate lines and opportunities. The majority of the lines for these proposition wagers are statistical based and little factor is placed on the current week's player status. Many sportsbooks simply copy the proposition bet lines from other shops, but the edge can be found with the sportsbooks that originate all these propsition wagers. Sportsbooks like Sportsbook.com are going to be the first to put up their proposition wagers and have larger limits. Getting the virgin line at opening with a large limit will allow you to capitalize on all opportunities.
9. Winning is picking 50%. It is not because 50% is considered spectacular, there are plenty of people that win 60% or 65%, in fact most of the top handicappers well exceed 60% winning ratios. Picking winners is only half of the key to success, the other half is money management. Streaks are inevitable in any betting season and a smart wagerer will press a winning streak and back off from a losing one. This strategy is difficult to follow and its more about your feel of the game that the statistics. If your racking up winners based on your own insight into the game, press your wagers, exploit that feeling. But be careful, because as soon as you lose that touch you need to pull back until you understand the teams better. Don't get destroyed by a losing streak. That is how you make money.
10. Bet the board or only your top selections? There are defiantly two schools of though on how to spread your bankroll. Some believe in highly selective wagering, while others believe in playing the board. The best strategy is somewhere in the middle. Betting the board leaves the door open too much to luck and the 10% vig will tear apart your bankroll. On the other hand if you hold firm to just a few wagers a week, what happens when an attractive card of 10 games shows up, how do you narrow down the list? So, how can less be more? If you were selective and played five games per week for 16 weeks (80 games), and managed the near-impossible trick of 70% winners, it would calculate like this; 56 winners, minus the 24 losers, equals +32 units. With the "juice" calculated, that's roughly +30 units. On the other hand, if you played 15 games per week for 16 weeks (240 games), and connected on 60% of those wagers, you'd be +48 units (144 minus 96), and after the "juice" would be approximately +38 units, far ahead of the previous scenario.
11. Free Cash, Why Not? A few of the Internet sportsbooks are so large that giving away One Million Dollars in free cash over the course of the year is less than 2% of their marketing budget. Why shouldn't some of that money head in your direction? Skill based contests are going to be your best chance to get a piece of the pie, where your knowledge of the game probably gives you an edge over 90% of the other contest players, then its just a matter of luck. The contests that are free to enter are easy pickings that you should be playing at least one a week.
12. Get the Best Line. The smart gambler always shops around for the best available price. After a season of betting over 200 games, a half a point on those games can mean the difference between winning 50% and winning 65%. Almost 25% of all NFL games land on the number 3.
13. Collect Your Winnings. There is no worse feeling than having a great season and having to chase your bookie for cash, but there is also nothing greater in the world than beating your sportsbook and having the cash to show for it on Monday morning. Insure that you bet with a large, transparent sportsbook; one that is going to offer you complete security both of your financial transactions and your payouts. Look for books that have a long track record in the business and the customer numbers to prove it. Most importantly, make sure your sportsbook is on top of their game. Send them an email at 3 A.M., how long does it take to get a reply; start a live chat session online, how informative are their clerks; pick up the phone and call them at a busy hour, did you get put on hold, how friendly and responsive where the clerks? If you get the right answers, its the sign of a well oiled, well financed machine. On the other hand, if you dont get the right answers now, imagine the difficulties down the road.
14. Know Your Sportsbook. 95% of the sportsbooks on the Internet are 'mom & pop' businesses that operate with no formal corporate structure and from countries with relaxed regulatory scrutiny. Of course a 'mom & pop' business may offer a bit more of the personal touch, it doesn't have the financial strength you require. You must demand a sportsbook that is publicly traded on the London Stock Exchange. A public operation must answer to its thousands of shareholders with fully certified and audited financial statements. A London based corporation must have a full Board of Directors who are each fully registered and are personally responsible for the integrity of the operations. A company traded on the London Stock Exchange is required by law to always maintain sufficient cash on hand to meet all customer liabilities. In summary, a publicly traded company it going to offer the customer full transparency of its operations and a path for resolution should any problems occur.
15. Bye Bye to Bye Teams. That extra week off should give those teams plenty of time to rest up, heal those bruises and get well prepared for their next match. Not such great thinking. The reality is that the weeks are a lot less strenuous, practice time is shorter and party time is longer. Players don't return at the peak of their game. The proof is in the numbers. For the last three years Bye teams are only 40% against the spread when playing non Bye teams.
16. Only bet as much as you can afford to Win! |
